What is Raila up to?

A NASA Coalition protester surrenders to police after they were dispersed marching to the IEBC offices at Anniversary Towers along University Way on September 26, 2017

NASA's game plan — not preparing for the rerun but instead shaking up the electoral landscape — has plunged Kenya into uncertainty.
The Jubilee coalition will respond by ramming through its contentious election law amendments before the October 26 poll.
If Raila doesn't run or calls for a boycott, any election, if there is one, would lack credibility. If President Uhuru Kenyatta wins despite a boycott, or is declared winner, perhaps reelected unopposed, there would be unsavoury questions of legitimacy. Quite possibly a constitutional crisis.
This comes as IEBC chairman Wafula Chebukati on Friday reconstituted his election project team.
Raila Odinga's opposition movement has not held a campaign rally for weeks. They seem to have frizzed out.
Instead it concentrates on almost daily — sometimes twice daily — press conferences and anti-IEBC demonstrations every Monday and Friday.
From September 1 when the Supreme Court nullified President Uhuru Kenyatta's August 8 victory, Raila's sole message has been "no reforms, no elections."
Last weekend, the former Prime Minister led a powerful opposition team to tour Busia and Kakamega counties. The IEBC reform mantra was the message in all the many stops.
He also did not campaign for himself but explained why heads must roll at the IEBC and all NASA's "irreducible minimums" must be implement.
Efforts to amend the election laws before the election, must be scrapped, he says.
“To this end, we call upon all Kenyans to use their constitutionally given right to picket at IEBC offices countrywide on Mondays and Fridays. They must pave way for much-needed reforms to ensure the will of the majority, expressed through the ballot, prevails,” Raila told supporters in Busia on October 1.
Raila's lieutenants appear to have relaxed on the campaign trail and have joined in the "no election" chorus.
“For avoidance of doubt, and to the consternation of IEBC and Jubilee, there will be no election on October 26. No more shambolic election,” NASA CEO Norman Magaya tweeted on Friday.
Magaya, a High Court advocate, Senator James Orengo and lawyer Paul Mwangi were negotiating with the IEBC on the repeat polls.
Kenyatta's campaigns are netting big NASA defectors.
The Jubilee Party says it's aware of NASA's strategy and will defeat it.
JP has hatched to schemes to avert a constitutional crisis should Raila boycott the repeat poll, in an effort to delegitimise the whole process.
Talks convened by the IEBC to end the stalemate ended in deadlock on Tuesday after the opposition accused Chebukati's team of failing to address any of its demand.
It appears the IEBC will not meet NASA conditions for participating in the repeat poll ordered by the Supreme Court. It must take place by October 31.
NASA is banking on Constitution Article 138 (2), which makes it mandatory for a presidential election to be carried out all 290 constituencies. According to some lawyers, including some Jubilee-leaning advocates, this means an election will be null and void if any constituency or several do not participate. Where NASA support is fanatical, non-participation, non-elections are conceivable.

Jubilee wants Raila to make a formal written application to the IEBC to withdraw. This is a strategy to ring-fence Uhuru’s mandate if Raila makes good his poll boycott threat.
JP is pushing the Election Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2017 that would force Raila to withdraw in writing.
One amendment — sure to be passed — allows the IEBC to call of the presidential rerun and declare Uhuru President-elect, if Raila officially pulls out.
Raila, of course, would rather keep everyone guessing.
“Where there are more than two remaining candidates after the withdrawal, the election shall proceed as scheduled…where only one candidate remains after withdrawal, the remaining candidate shall be declared elected forthwith President-elect without any election being held,” reads the amendment
Jubilee, which enjoys an outright majority in Parliament, is expected to bulldoze through the amendments to ensure Kenyatta remains legally in office, without Kenyans having to actually vote for him.
In another strategy, Jubilee used Pokot South MP David Pkosing on Monday to move to court to compel Raila to run.
If Raila does not withdraw formally but maintains his no-election threat, the MP wants this declared an act of treason punishable by death.
Jubilee is concerned that Raila may mobilise his supporters to disrupt elections in some areas to deny the polls the requisite constitutional threshold.
Pkosing argues it would violate the Supreme Court ruling, which ordered the fresh presidential election, if Raila fails to participate. The MP said that if there's a boycott, there will be constitutional crisis, plunging the country into uncertainty.
Also, Samuel Waweru Gikuru has petitioned the DPP calling for the investigation and prosecution of Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka over their public statements that there will be no repeat election.
Tobiko has asked DCI boss Ndegwa Muhoro to probe them for violatingSection 132 of the Penal Code.
Yesterday, Jubilee held a rally in Meru, which largely voted for Uhuru.
Immediately the Supreme Court rendered its landmark verdict, Raila straight way hit the ground in what promised to be a vigorous campaigns but which later dissipated.
Raila addressed legion of supporters who had gathered at the Supreme court as Uhuru held another impromptu rally in Nairobi's Burma market.
The opposition chief on the following weekend led NASA to a thanksgiving prayer service at ACK St Stephens Church along Jogoo Road and later addressed the first rally in Mathare constituency.
NASA troops then landed in Nyamira and Kisii counties where they centered their campaign message on Chief Justice David Maraga who was then on the receiving end of Kenyatta's anti-court tirade. The team then wrapped up the Nyanza tour with an evening rally in Kisumu later in the day at Kisumu's Kondele grounds.
On September 8, NASA camped in Kajiado county addressing numerous rallies as they tell them of how IEBC stole their victory in the expansive county. The team then combed Narok county in another anti-IEBC mission, addressed a series of political rallies in Nairobi.
Then the campaigns fizzled out.